Following are my personal comments on specific markets and issues. I chart markets for a hobby and my comments are the result. They are not recommendations to buy or sell anything and should not be thought of as such. They are for entertainment purposes only so enjoy.
Please remember, the following is pure speculation based only on my experience and chart patterns. "Every sunken ship has a room full of charts."
David Bruce Edwards
April 25, 2026
Note - I got a new wider screen monitor and when I look at this web site with the screen size in full, the site spacing does not come out properly. By making the window less wide all of the text and graphics slide into place. Perhaps you are having the same experience. DBE.
As usual, I will show pictures and graphs found on Zerohedge.com, Sentimentrader.com, which include the Seasonality charts and charts made on Barchart.com. I will also mention "cycle low timing bands" suggested by another market website to which I subscribe, Cyclesman.com.
Two weeks ago, the U.S. and Iran were scheduled to meet in Pakistan. It didn't work out well. Another meeting is scheduled for this weekend. Analysts are convinced that the "market is telling us that - -" the war is nearly over and the Straits will be opened within the next week or two. Economic statistics are coming out that were collected after the start of the war. Traders dismiss anything bad as temporary.
The March Producer Price Index (left) hit 0.5% month over month. The recent string of similar readings pushed the annual rate to 4%. The Core reading came in at only 0.1% for the month and 3.8% for the last 12 months. Analysts were quick to point out that minus surging energy prices, inflation at the Producer level is mild. This fueled the positive "once the war is over" narrative.
A Purchasing Managers Survey countered the low inflation theory. The left side graph shows business activity in services (green) and manufacturing (blue) along with recent hard data (red). Manufacturing is doing very well and services rebounded. The price data on the right showed that both Input and Output prices are rising. The lower graph tracks Output Prices and Consumer prices. The data shows that Output Prices at the producer level lead Consumer Prices. We should expect inflation to rise over the next few months.
New Claims for Unemployment Benefits (left) were at the lower end of their range over the last five years, coming in at 214,000. The four week average (right, green) ticked up slightly. Continuing claims (right, red) also rose a bit from low levels. This weekly data is becoming some of the most closely watched by Wall Street because of the belief that AI will spark mass layoffs.
On the left is a graph of ADP jobs data. ADP is a huge payrolls processing company with hard data on the expansion or contraction in the number of paychecks. On the right is a graph from Real Investment Advice, an advisory firm with a free weekly newsletter and daily market commentary. I recommend them because it is data driven with no hype. They look at the 12 month moving average of the monthly change in payrolls without seasonal adjustments. The ADP graph looks very positive for the jobs picture. The Real Investment Advice graph is less bullish. I listened to an interview with a labor economist who said that most companies do their hiring in the first four months of the year. After April, the labor market tends to weaken. Another said that nealy all the net positive change in jobs in the last year came from the healthcare sector. Aside from healthcare, there is no growth in employment.
Industrial Production (left) fell by 0.54% last month. The previous month was revised higher to plus 0.74%. The green and red bars show how volatile the month by month data is. The blue annual reading is at 0.74% and still in the upper end of it range for the last few years. Manufacturing Output (right) was down 0.01% for the month and fell to 0.5% annually. Analysts who specialize in this segment say that these readings are consistent with an economy that is growing at around 1% per year.
Total Retail Sales (upper left) rose 1.7% last month and 4% for the year. Much of the increase was due to higher gasoline prices. The green line on the right side graph shows Retail Sales minus food services, car and gasoline sales. It rose at a healthy 4.8% annual rate. Economists are worried about the amount of debt that consumers carry and believe that this will eventually curtail spending. There was no sign of that last month.
To the left is a graph showing the price path of retail gasoline and diesel prices, Urea (fertilizer ingredient) and world food prices. The point of the picture is to show that food prices follow diesel and fertilizer prices. If the war does not end soon, consumers will be spending a lot more on food, transportation and energy over the next few months with less money available for discretionary spending.
Going into this weekend we are living in a bi-polar world. Our war with Iran and the closure of the Straits is driving up costs for any country that has to import fuel and petro-chemical products such as fertilizer. There are shortages of gasoline and diesel in many places. Countries with Strategic Reserves of Oil are drawing upon them. The U.S. withdrew over 4 million barrels from our reserve. The shortages of fertilizer have some analysts predicting a famine for part of the world later this year. In the U.S., our stock market is at record levels. Corporate profits are soaring, unemployment is low and consumers continue to spend despite politicians yelling about an afford-ability crisis. The Tariffs are forcing businesses to bring manufacturing back into the U.S. The Big Beautiful Bill allows companies to immediately write off expenditures for equipment sourced domestically which is pulling demand forward for all kinds of things and sparking a manufacturing boom. AI spending, 60% of all capex is in the billions, sparking investment in energy production and all kinds of equipment needed to build data centers. On top of that, our government is on a war procurement spending binge, suggesting that some of our manufacturing should be retooled for military purposes. Watch this interview with Craig Fuller from FreightWaves, a company that tracks freight volumes of all types including ship, air, rail and trucking. Miracle Turnaround? The US Industrial Economy Is Now Booming DESPITE High Oil Prices | Craig Fuller. He mentions rail traffic and in particular, record movement of chemicals that started before the war. He also says that rail traffic for grains to export terminals is hitting records, something that is not showing up in the weekly foreign tender data. He compares the current volumes with those last seen in 2008 which is telling. Optimists will see this interview and say that current stock market prices are justified. Pessimists will note that in 2008, the world was on the cusp of a depression and freight volumes were a lagging indicator. For now, investors are acting as if the War with Iran and its disastrous consequences for much of the world are non-events.
Charts of the Week -
Chart 1
At the end of March, I include this bullish chart interpretation of the stock market. The downs and ups could be seen as an expanding triangle (pennant) that would lead to a final enthusiastic burst in stocks before a major reversal. If reality follows art then we are in that final surge in confidence right now. It is impossible to know where the top is. Chart patterns express probabilities, not certainties and a more bullish analysts would say that we are off to the races for the foreseeable future. A twist on the expanding triangle theory is that the orthodox top could have been at the point that I label "b". That means that we are at point "d" going into this weekend with the potential for a devastating sell off that takes prices below "e" followed by the final surge later this year. This is unlikely but something to think about.
I watch parts of all three financial networks early in the morning. Despite the world missing millions of barrels of oil, every analysts interviewed was a raving bull on the stock market last week. Whenever I heard such uniformity in the past, it came closer to the end than the beginning.
Chart 2
The markings on the graph of June Crude Oil futures show it as a potential contracting triangle (pennant) for a final burst to new highs before a reversal. Though possible in chart mysticism terms, no one wants to see this. If reality follows art, we still have the "e" leg of the formation before prices start to rise again. Often, the "e" fake out is triggered by headlines and forms over a short period. Good news coming out of Iran this weekend would be an example.
I don't even want to guess at what would be happening on the ground to justify a final spike higher. A move below the "c" point at $78.97 will mean that something more positive is happening. Let's hope we see it.
Chart 3
This graph was everywhere last week. It shows that much of the U.S. is experiencing Drought conditions. Some of the worse areas are where hard winter wheat is grown. Weather analysts are comparing the setup this year to some previous disastrous years such as 2012, when square miles of farmland turned brown because of lack of rain. Soybean futures hit $17.89 that summer, corn $8.49 and wheat $9.45.
Corpus Christi is already running out of water. The Oil from the Permian Basin flows to Corpus Christi and is exported around the world, softening the shortage from the War. What happens if operations are curtailed because there is not enough water to support the city?
Weather predicting companies are also forecasting a "Super el Nino" for late 2026 and 2027. This means super floods in some parts of the world and terrible droughts in others such as Australia, a major wheat producing country.
Weather forecasts are often wrong. Let's hope we get rain that ends the drought.
The S&P 500 hit new highs because it includes tech stocks. The clear winner was the NASDAQ 100 that is focused on them and within the NASDAQ 100, an even smaller cluster of companies in the semi-conductor universe propelled the average. On the right is a five year, weekly bar chart of SMH, the most popular semiconductor ETF. Chip makers are reporting great earnings driven by data center demand and the adoption of AI Agents. The Nvidia chips are used for training, CPUs for getting AI Agents to run and memory for everything. Next week, the big hyper-scalers post earnings and plans for spending on data centers. Last week we saw panic buying in chip stocks. It reminded me of the tulip mania of 1636. The latest round was sparked by Antrhopic's Mythos AI that found bugs and vulnerabilities in hundreds of popular software programs and was quickly limited to a few users. I can't think of better marketing. I am reading, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, written by Carlota Perez right as the dot.com bubble was beginning to pop. Here is an excerpt - "In the period immediately following the big-bang that announces a technological revolution, financial capital begins a passionate relationship with the emerging production capital. The new revolutionary entrepreneurs soon outstrip the profit-making potential of all the established production sectors and there is a rush of financial capital towards them, readily developing new appropriate instruments whenever necessary." We are in that stage now. Last week, I heard an analyst declare that semiconductors are no longer a cyclical industry and that there will never be another glut of computer chips. This is despite every developed country subsidizing domestic production of chips and companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google, ASML and TSLA making their own and expanding production. All the existing players are also putting billions of Dollars into expanding capacity as they linearly project the current demand into the indefinite future.
Market measurements that are not as heavily weighted by tech are lagging. Sentimentrader.com reported that the insiders running industrial companies are selling shares at a rapid rate.
Given all the hype around AI it is surprising that two of its biggest promoters are not doing as well as their suppliers. Meta announced huge layoffs to cut overhead so they can spend more money on data centers. AlphaBet is just below its February peak.
Caterpillar is the industrial way to play the data center build out and the re-shoring building boom. It is like the chip sector in that investors are projecting its current outlook into the indefinite future. MMM is a conglomerate with a mixture of consumer, medical and industrial products. My guess is that its chart is a more realistic view of the current health of the economy. When AI applications deliver big gains in profitability, you will see it in the shares of 3M.
The Interest Rates on U.S. Government Debt Obligations fell very slightly over the last two weeks. The orange line is the latest. On the right is the history of interest rates on a U.S. Ten Year Note. When traders see a long term pattern of decreasing amplitude they prepare for a big move up or down. Stock market bulls are confident that the war is almost over and when oil sells off, rates will decline.
The stock market charts represent the asset side of the ledger. Some of the AI build out is financed with cash flow from companies like Google and Microsoft but more and more, these companies are borrowing to pay for chips and data centers, betting that in the future, customers will be willing to pay enough to justify current costs, interest on debt and current operating costs of these energy guzzling plants. Trillions in government debt will have to be refinanced over the next five years. Gaza needs billions to rebuild. Russia and Ukraine are destroying infrastructure nightly which will require loans to replace.
Wars always bring debt and increased risk for borrowers. How do you know that the entity to which you are lending will survive. Above and to the right is a list of Gulf State institutions and the loans they took out to stay afloat while their oil exports are trapped. The total is around 13 billion Dollars over the last two months. PIMCO, the huge bond investment firm lent 10 billion of it. Until last week, when all worries dissipated, investors were worried about Private Credit going under. If Israel resumes attacks and Iran decides to take out everyone in the neighborhood, loans to the Gulf States could be worse than Private Credit.
Above and to the left is a measure of credit stress in the system. They yellow band is the current range of Fed Funds. The blue line is the rate charged for secured overnight lending. Secured lending means that you borrow against assets with U.S. Treasury debt the most used collateral. If it starts rising above the Fed Funds rate, you know there are problems.
You don't see and hear that much about gold and silver these days and that is a good sign. When every investment advisor is talking about the metals or any other asset, it often marks a peak in enthusiasm. Last week it was all about semiconductors. Gold is in the timing band for one of Cyclesman.com's daily lows. Silver should follow a similar path. Investors are worried that cash strapped countries will sell their gold. So far, PIMCO's willingness to risk their clients' cash is saving metals. If refineries and export terminals are destroyed, creditors will back off and these countries will be forced to sell assets that include U.S. Treasuries, stocks and precious metals.
Platinum and palladium are still tied to gold.
The Dollar is trading around its 200 day moving average. There should be nothing magical about the number 200 but for some reason, it has become the fence between bull and bear markets. I thought the Dollar was going to follow my ideal dashed, red line drawings on the right side chart. The recent down draft makes it look unlikely. We just passed through one of Cyclesman.com's trading bands for a low. If this market is any good, it will hold above the recent cycle low.
Things are grown all over the world. Bad weather in one hemisphere can be offset by a bumper crop in another. The U.S. is a major producer of agricultural commodities so fear of poor growing conditions here will cause buying around the world. No one needs to own Nvidia and governments do not get overthrown because people don't have access to winning ETFs. Food shortages have a long history of sparking social unrest. In the 1600s, a third of the world's population died after the energy from the sun dropped, the world cooled and crops failed for years. Many governments were overthrown. This is why there is a rush to secure supplies at the first mention of potential shortages. Some of our dryer conditions are in the winter wheat belt.
Best Guesses -
Stocks - When I started typing, our delegation was on its way to Pakistan. A few hours later, the trip was called off. Who knows what this means for markets on Monday? The stock market made a low within the Cyclesman.com. 39 trading day timing band at the end of last month. Often, at around day 19, stocks pull back a bit. Friday the 24th was day 19. If the market fails to rally to new highs during the second half of the 39 days, it is bearish sign. If it rallies to new highs then quickly sells off, taking out the low formed near day 19 it is also a sign of weakness.
Traders are talking about semiconductor companies the way they were about gold and silver two months ago. This kind of enthusiasm often warns you of a peak. Earnings reports are due this week. Tesla sold off last week after they announced plans to spend 25 billion on AI. If the hyper-scalers try and out do each other in spending, they will likely be sold too. At some point, the amount invested in quickly changing technology is unrecoverable. Some analysts say we already passed that point.
Bullish pundits say that we need to look past the war with Iran. It sounds too optimistic to me.
Bonds - Our industrial policy which is driving markets higher has stock market gains on one side and debt on the other. For now, we are focused on the assets while the liabilities build. Watch the SOFR. It shows up on Bloomberg TV every few minutes as they scroll through different markets.
Dollar - The Dollar rallied but hit a lower point than anticipated before it bottomed. It could be part of a larger sideways move.
Gold and Silver - We are within the timing band for a low. If they don't rally next week it will warn that we have a failed cycle low and prices are headed south.
Commodities - Long term readers know I have a bias toward grains. Drought = higher prices and potential panic buying. If you listen to the Freightwaves interview you will hear him say that railroads are transporting huge shipments of grains to ports. That will show up in storage data later this year. When you hear about semiconductor stocks rallying for 18 session straight, you wish you owned them all. When you hear about wheat hitting new highs you should be asking yourself if you have enough food stored for your family to survive. It is a shortage of a different scale.
Oil - It is all about Iran and the U.S. Traders, who buy and sell the physical commodities are still saying that the futures prices in NY do not reflect the stress in the physical market. Buying futures involves the possibility of sudden loss if the Straits open. The price of physical oil at a certain location is the result of the supply and demand at that location today. The gap between the two prices expresses the probability of a settlement. Above, I show a chart that labels the down and up moves as part of a coiling pattern that will result in much higher prices. I hope that the opposite happens.
Unneeded Commentary - The Negotiations with Iran
Today started out with our two negotiators headed to Pakistan. President Trump canceled their trip before noon. At other times, he hinted that Iran accepted most of our terms then a few hours later Iran denied it. What is going on? To most of us who grew up in the U.S., shopping at stores with bar coded prices, tactics like this appear to be child's play but they aren't. In the 1980s the Karrass negotiating course was very popular and I took it. In most societies around the world, people grow up learning these tactics and they become part of how they think. In the 90s, one of my best friends was from Iran. He had two PhDs and ran the medical labs at a regional hospital. He decided to look at other positions and demanded a lot. A hospital in Dearborn, Michigan gave him everything he wanted. He said to me, "They gave me everything I wanted." I said to him, "Great!! Take the job. You got what you asked for." He responded, "If they agreed to what I was asking, I think I can get more." He called them back and upped his demand. After that, they refused his phone calls and never spoke to him again. I never forgot this incident because it gave me a glimpse into another culture's thinking.
The back and forth, stops and starts and false statements about a deal are all negotiating tactics, covered in the Karrass course and explained in the book you get when you take the course. They seem strange and a total waste of time to those of us in a "take it at the marked price or leave it on the shelf" culture. For instance, scheduling a negotiating session where side one sends their top people while side 2 shows up with people who are not authorized to make a final decision is a standard tactic, designed to wear down side one and make them look desperate for a deal. The whole positioning of who is more desperate for a deal is also part of the on-going negotiation. Years ago, on my second trip to Peru, I was with a gentleman who I later hired when I opened an office in Lima. My son was little and I wanted to buy him an alpaca blanket at the artisanal market. I would have just paid the asking price which was very cheap in U.S. Dollars. My future employee haggled with the vendor for five minutes. At one point he accused the vendor of falsely labeling the blanket as made from wool instead of Alpaca which the poor merchant vigorously denied. It was all part of the negotiation. In the late 80s and early 90s, my boss had a PhD in extractive metallurgy. He previously worked as a consultant, negotiating with Japanese smelters on behalf of mining companies for the best possible smelting terms. He told me that from the time you first meet people from the smelters at the airport, every word, every place you are taken to is part of the negotiation. After normal work hours they wanted to take him out dining and drinking into the early morning hours with women, hired by the smelting companies, ready to sleep with him. It was all designed to weaken him and give them a lever over him in the next day's negotiations. He politely refused the after hours entertainment. My point is that the stops and starts and posturing seem like idiocy to us but you can find the same tactics discussed by Karrass with each one having a suggested counter tactic. This is how much of the world does business and why the U.S. usually wins on the battlefield but loses at the negotiating table.
Best of luck,
DBE
